Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.123434 0.144958 0.169960 0.201351 0.239995 0.286382 0.346832
2025-09-14 0.094613 0.120395 0.153445 0.199624 0.263613 0.350882 0.481985
2025-09-21 0.072997 0.099188 0.135631 0.191454 0.277410 0.409371 0.636997
2025-09-28 0.053011 0.075764 0.109521 0.165192 0.258738 0.417701 0.728043
2025-10-05 0.044318 0.066763 0.102389 0.166029 0.283896 0.509061 1.019428
2025-10-12 0.038413 0.060824 0.098780 0.172140 0.322128 0.646340 1.513804
2025-10-19 0.033237 0.055022 0.094145 0.175488 0.358274 0.804940 2.227158
2025-10-26 0.029107 0.050201 0.090214 0.179413 0.399361 1.008615 3.350882
2025-11-02 0.024956 0.044527 0.083391 0.175348 0.421368 1.185331 4.709775
2025-11-09 0.021172 0.038853 0.075335 0.166150 0.427031 1.325089 6.255868
2025-11-16 0.018827 0.035618 0.071743 0.166888 0.463250 1.615140 9.481320
2025-11-23 0.016833 0.032747 0.068336 0.167182 0.500090 1.961437 14.581057
2025-11-30 0.015163 0.030372 0.065797 0.169958 0.552263 2.481441 24.786272
2025-12-07 0.013722 0.028247 0.063413 0.172649 0.609197 3.153676 44.158507
2025-12-14 0.012214 0.025707 0.059425 0.169066 0.640229 3.762210 73.478930
2025-12-21 0.010275 0.021850 0.051202 0.148716 0.582536 3.644036 84.892289
2025-12-28 0.009459 0.020581 0.049726 0.151388 0.641333 4.659776 172.016423
2026-01-04 0.008880 0.019800 0.049449 0.158530 0.733682 6.367681 442.073848
2026-01-11 0.008279 0.018861 0.048514 0.162982 0.818990 8.463237 1230.647718
2026-01-18 0.007749 0.018021 0.047695 0.167778 0.916133 11.401192 4385.422769
2026-01-25 0.007102 0.016767 0.045320 0.164997 0.960025 13.870951 14325.110041
2026-02-01 0.006425 0.015337 0.042095 0.157195 0.959339 15.574939 42343.797139
2026-02-08 0.006006 0.014567 0.040888 0.158505 1.039151 20.249886 464308.471098